'Life is after all a recursive summation, indeed     Let's do some Statistics!

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Frank Batten College of Engineering and Technology
Old Dominion University
Norfolk, Virginia 23529-0241, USA
Tel) (757) 683-3753
Fax) (757) 683-5354


	
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Core Information
Course CEE 700/800 CEE Experimental Methods
Lecture 3 hours; 3 credits
Spring Semester, 2025
(offered Face-to-Face & Online)

Course Website: http://asellus.cee.odu.edu/expdesign/

CALL No.: 21293 CEE 700 - ODU Main Campus (ODU), Gornto 205
CALL No.: 31053 CEE 700 - Hamptoon Roads area (WC2)
CALL No.: 31055 CEE 700 - In Virginia (WC5)
CALL No.: 31056 CEE 700 - Outside of Virginia (WC7)

CALL No.: 21294 CEE 800 - ODU Main Campus (ODU), Gornto 205
CALL No.: 31058 CEE 800 - Hamptoon Roads area (WC2)
CALL No.: 31061 CEE 800 - In Virginia (WC5)
CALL No.: 31062 CEE 800 - Outside of Virginia (WC7)

Session Spring; January 11 (Sa) through April 28 (M), 2025
Time/Days Tuesday, 7:25 PM-10:05 PM
Classroom Gornto Distance Learning Building, Gornto 205 and Online
Prerequisite MATH 212 (Calculus II)
Students are presumed to have a good foundation in mathematics and reasonable understanding of programming logic.

Mildly DISCOURAGED if a student has finished *less* than a minimum of 6 credits of graduate coursework.
Instructor Jaewan Yoon, Associate Professor, CEE, KH 130
Phone (757) 683-4724
Fax (757) 683-5354
e-mail <jyoon@odu.edu>   

Course Description
 
"Clarity in logic, augmented by deductive processes."

"To make a correct and objective inference about the System (=Population) based on information contained in Experiments (=Samples)."'

"With its Reproducibility confirmed and verified, engineering design then signifies entelechial Scalability."
 
The objective of this course is to provide graduate-level students (1) an overview of various experimental designs and problem conceptualization methods used in research and in the real-world environment (i.e., "See the Forest not just Trees" -- it's all about the SYSTEM!!), and (2) proper and practical statistical methods applicable to multidisciplinary engineering problems with an environmental engineering stress.

Fundamental and general concepts on system characterization adn statistics will be reviewed in the beginning part of the semester, then progresses rapidly into various statistical methods applicable to research/project activities such as experiment/sample design strategies, test of hypotheses, and the analysis aspect including regression and correlation, analysis of variance, nonparametric statistics, and probability distributions -- to consummate "Why would/should I" prior- and "What am I going to do with" posterior-conditions.

Emphasis will be equally on concepts and applications. Statistical Analysis Systems (SAS) software available in ODU MoVE (Monarch Virtual Environment/VM) (for interactive process) and ODU HPC (High Performance Computing) cluster (for batch process) platforms will be heavily used for assignments and for the class project.
Textbook and References
 
Textbook Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 7th Ed., (2018), Douglas C. Montgomery and George C. Runger, John Wiley & Sons, ISBN: 978-1-119-57061-5 (Hardcover);
ISBN: 978-1-119-40036-3 (eBook)

Class Topics
   

  1. Descriptive Statistics - Measure of Location (C.T.), Measure of Variability (Disp.), Measure of Symmetry (Skewness) and Measure of Peakedness (Kurtosis) -- reconstructing images of the population via sample(s).

  2. Probability - Interpretation of Probability, Probability Rules, Bayes Theorem applications.

  3. Discrete Random Variables and Probability Distributions - PDF, CDF, Binomial & Poisson Distribution.

  4. Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions - Normal Distribution and other Normality-based PDFs.

  5. Joint Probability Distributions - Discrete vs. Continuous Random variables, Chebychev's Inequality, Shapiro-Wilk and Kolmogrov-Smirnov tests.

  6. Point Estimation - Statistical Inference, Maximum Likelihood Method, Chi-square, t-, and F-distributions.

  7. Interval Estimation - Confidence Interval, Tolerance Interval - cover all but stretched thin, or cover less but thick and sturdy, that is the question.

  8. Test of Hypothesis (T.H.) - What you see is What you get, really? Let's double-check by using T.H. - p-value, Type, Case, Do and Don't of Hypothesis Testing.

  9. Nonparametric Statistics - Sign Test, Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test, Kruskal-Wallis Chi-Square similitude, Asymptotic sample approximation, Friedman's Nonparametric ANOVA.

  10. Linear Regression and Correlation - Least Squares Estimation, Significance of Regression, Coeff. of Determination, Mean Squared Error (MSE) and RMSE analysis.

  11. Multiple Linear Regression - Least Squares minimization technique, Residual SS and variance analysis, Multivariate minimization, R2 vs. Adjusted R2, Stepwise regression and Mallow's Cp statistics, Multicollinearity.

  12. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) - Dimensionality-reduction method for large data sets with variance-covariance linear combinations. Pre-screening and idetification of key reproducibility variables that are strongly correlated.

  13. Single-Factor Experiment Design - Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), Residual Analysis, CR and RCB Designs, Tukey's LSD and Duncan's MRT Multiple Means Comparison (MMC) methods.

  14. Multiple Factorial Design - Orthogonal Latin Square and Factorial Experiments, Replication, Randomization and Blocking, Response Surface Methods, Factorial Multicollinearity. GLMSelect technique and subsequent Heteroscedasticity of predictive model(s).

Also

  • Normality, normality, and normality. Assumption vs. Verification.

  • How the test of hypothesis (T.H.) works - correct hypothesis vs. induced hypothesis.

  • Good, Bad and Ugly T.H. -- a decomposed, "singular" hypothesis with idiotic simplicity vs. a tangled, "complex" hypothesis with unnecessary multiplicity. (Eschew obfuscation!)

  • The magic silver bullet - dealing with p-value (are you sure about your conclusion?)

  • Comparison of Means - Are they different and how sure are you? How different are they? And the implication -- see the forest not trees.

  • Graphical Data Analysis - Why do we use graphs in the first place? Often-used bad graphs vs. rarely-used good graphs.

  • How to build a correct & good (or so-so) regression model, and when you should not even attempt to build one. Common misunderstanding, gross abuse and true meaning and applicability of regression techniques.

  • Handling data below detection limits (now you see, now you don't).

  • Dealing with outliers (Gremlins!) - to include or not to include, that is the question.

  • When do you should consider data transformations? Would it biased?

  • Trend analysis - Are things getting better or worse? Gradual trends vs. quick changes. Am I seeing a temporal cyclic recurrence? -- Spectral analysis, Time series and Autoregressive models.

  • All mighty Nonparametric statistics!!!

  • Using control charts and confidence intervals - What's the difference? When to use which?

  • Control Charts - Boundary conditions of QC/QA -- the cost of "quality" and its propagated ramification and liability.
Those darn kreek thymbols!
Class Philosophy
   

  1. "Memorization is a function of duty; Knowledge comes from the inquisitive mind."

  2. Throughout this course, I will encourage you to think, to reason, and to question. I will stress knowledge of and application of broad general concepts because these are all you will remember 2, 5, or 10 years from now. However, one still needs to know the details of these concepts, but generally you can look up the details after you recognize the concept.

  3. The classroom presentation will be a combination of lecture and discussion. I will frequently ask questions during lectures to promote discussion of various topics and to stimulate thoughts. Feel free to interrupt me at any time in order to discuss points that you do not understand or simply want to discuss in more detail. (of course, at the same time we need to use the time wisely to cover class topics) Remember, I will not be able to guess which topics they might be -- you must tell me first. The only dumb questions are those that are never asked and left in the dark.

  4. Somewhat a disturbing concept yet the more you make mistakes (or downright embaress yourself upon incorrectly answering questions asked by the instructor), the more you will learn (and remember, not the embaressment part I hope). I.e., class participation is critical for your true learning process. The very nature of topical coverage requires ascertaining your understanding of the topic as well as ascertaining that you can equally state your understanding of the topic. Don't be afraid, it is still a controlled flight afterall, and there will be no casualty left behind by making incorrect answer(s) in class -- please do consider taking an advantage of such circumstance.

  5. Office Hours: You're welcome to e-mail your question to me at <jyoon@odu.edu> anytime. Please e-mail some explicit questions that demonstrate that you have done some thinking about your problem on your own. You must have a clarity on what it is that you don't understand!

  6. Class website will be used to provide your latest cumulative grade information. Please make a habit to check the site often.

  7. Reasonable accommodations will be provided for students with disabilities. Students should self-identify to me as early in the semester as possible.
Grading Policy
   

Project 50% Final Project Report dues by May 2 (Friday), 5:00 PM or earlier via Canvas/Assignments
Midterm Exam 20% Takehome exam, exam material will be posted to Canvas/Assignments on March 5, Tuesday 7:00 PM. Due by March 7 (Thursday) 5:00 PM or earlier via uploading your solution to Canvas/Assignments
Final Exam (Comprehensive Oral Exam) 30% April 29 (T) and April 30 (W). 20-min. per student via Zoom.

==> Sign-up and schedule your comprehensive oral final exam in advance.




Total 100%  

  • Though there will be no explicit homework assignment, problems will be assigned and solution will be posted to Canvas in one-week cycle.

  • For PhD students who had registered for CEE 800, in addition to "all above," you are required to submit a term research papers (due together with your Final Project Report). Topic of the term research paper will be identified after a short meeting with the instructor in the beginning of the semester.

Final Grade Assignment

Letter grades will be based on brackets (see right side) out of the normalized 100% total.

A cumulative total equals to a 65 percentile or higher will guarantee you a grade of C- or better. A cumulative total smaller than a 65 percentile will guarantee you a grade of F. No grading based on the curve.
 
100%-93%
< 93%-88% A-
< 88%-85% B+
< 85%-81%
< 81%-78% B-
< 78%-73% C+
< 73%-68%
< 68%-65% C-
< 65%

Grading Criteria

Key is that you should solve problems clean and tight with your assumption(s) clearly stated in the beginning. For example, if a typical problem worths a total of 10 points, it would be graded using following criteria;

Technical solution (8 points total)

   
What it meant to be (Completely correct)

  8/8
Approach is o.k., but a wrong answer/conclusion, a.k.a., a computational error or/and an unit conversion meltdown situation

  6/8
Reasonable attempt (yup, it shows), but plagued by serious error(s)

  4/8
Poor effort, perfunctory and incomplete, however still trying to show that you are trying

  2/8
Problem not attempted

  0/8
Given answer(s) alone is correct by itself yet completely irrelevant and superfluous so that the answer has nothing to do with the solution asked/required by the question

  -2/8
Does not appear to be written/stated by an engineering major

  -4/8
Does not appear to be written/stated by a graduate student

  -20/8

Presentation (2 point total)

   
Neatly and succinctly illustrates one's thought process and rationale behind procedures (which can be correct or incorrect)

  2/2
Murky as well as in Dead Sea Scrolls quality, yet still theoritically traceable/decipherable with darn good efforts based on profiling of the individual's idiosynchracy

  1/2
Starts causing throbbings in the sinus

  0/2
Causes a severe migraine headache, illegible

  -2/2
Does not appear to be written/stated by a graduate student

  -10/2
Logistics

  1. Though there will be no explicit homework assignment, problems will be assigned and solution will be posted to Canvas in one-week cycle.

  2. Takehome Midterm Exam material will be posted to Canvas/Assignments on March 11, Tuesday 7:00 PM. Due by March 13 (Thursday) 5:00 PM or earlier via your PDF solution upload to Canvas/Assignments.

  3. Comprehensive Oral Final exam will cover *all* the topics discussed during the semester in a format that the examinee will examine and pick one out of multiple scenariorized questions, then logically identify where to start, what to, and how to analyze in order to derive which necessary information for the problem, and how to present the conclusion in a objective and correct manner -- "real-world" approach, do it correctly and use it correctly.

    Final exam will be given on April 29 (T) and April 30 (W), and it will be a 20-min comprehensive oral test per student via Zoom.

    ==> Sign-up and schedule your comprehensive oral final exam in advance.

            
  4. If you think your exam was incorrectly graded for some arguable reason, please return it to me with a detailed explanation. I reserve the right to completely regrade an exam that has been returned. (Regraded result can be either better or worse than the original grade).
            
  5. For statistical analysis on larger daaset, SAS (Statistical Analysis System) application in ODU MoVE VM server will be used.

    SAS is de facto the statistical software used by pretty much all professional and official domains. Most importantly, if you can interprete SAS output/Listing, you can interprete outputs from any variety of statistical software with confidence and clarity since they all rooted from SAS and use the same/similar output format and syntax. Thus by learning SAS, you become capable of using any other statistical software, correctly and effectively.

    This does not necessariy prevent you from using other statistical software (such as R, SPSS, JMP, Minitab, MatLab, etc.) for assignment and and your project research. Key is that you should be able to interprete the analysis results (from whichever statistical software that you used), not just be able to run analysis (without receiving any error).
            
  6. For any SAS assignment, always add/put your interpretation or conclusion on SAS analysis results rather than just bring SAS output listings. (Think "why did I run SAS for in the first place?")

    Always keep in mind that just pushing a bunch of numbers under someone's nose without clearly interpreting the implication(s) would be an abominable vice as an engineer. Do eschew obfuscation!
            
Class Project

"I see!", said the blind carpenter, as he picked up his hammer and saw.

-- William Shakespeare, MacBeth

Project Guideline

  1. One of requirements for this course is that each student conducts a small statistical design/analysis project related to a research topic(s) in one's field of study, i.e., environmental, structural, geotechnical, water resources, coastal, transportation, biofuel, modeling, sampling, lab experiment, etc.
     
  2. Idea is that by conducting a small-scale statistical/experimental design class project on your research topic(s), you can readily apply similar methodology/technique(s) to or later develop the very idea/concept into your own dissertation/thesis/project research -- i.e., do a "seed idea project.".

    This would be tremendously beneficial for your current/future research, especially in the areas of hypothesis testing, comparison of data (either mean or variance or both), regression analysis, sampling strategy, etc. -- so that the experimental design techniques will *help* you toward accomplishing your research goal, *not* becoming your research goal.
     
  3. I can guarantee you that you'll get all the necessary helps and plus from me throughout the entirety of your project. If you feel stuck somehow, do not procrastinate, go ahead and request for an advisory meeting in regard to your project idea/problem!
     
  4. Each student is required to submit a full Final Project Report (no hardcopy report, single PDF file submitted/uploaded to Canvas/Assignments) for one's project.

    Guidelines for the project/report element and format as well as its grading criteria
    are also available in the class website.

    Final report is due by May 2 (Friday) 5:00 PM via uploading to Canvas/Assignments
     
  5. Be serious about the deadline!! -- (if it is not that serious, people wouldn't put the word 'dead' in the first place, isn't it?) Late project report submission will be accepted with a 30% deduction, i.e., your report will be graded based on a maximum point of 70.
     
  6. Remember, the ability to deliver a thorough, technically-sound, and quality project on-time is what distinguishes you from the undergraduates and what distinguishes the engineers from the scientists(!).
Honor System

The Old Dominion University Honor Code applies to all works associated with this course. Honor the Honor Code. Remember, the academia is all about pride and respect, and the Honor Code is the heart of it. Think about it, really.
Course Timeline
 
CEE 700/800 CEE Experimental Methods
Lecture 3 hours; 3 credits
Spring Semester, 2025 (January 11 - April 28, 2025)
CRN_CEE 700: 21293, 31053, 31055, 31056
CRN_CEE 800: 21294, 31058, 31061, 31062
Day/Time: Tuesday 7:25-10:05 PM @ GORNT 205 & Online

Today is

Important Dates to Remember
Introduction to SAS March 4 (Tuesday)
How to access SAS via ODU MoVE VM server, and how to get your analysis done.
Midterm Exam March 11-13 (Tuesday-Thursday)
Takehome Test
Exam material will be posted to Canvas/Assignments on March 11, Tuesday 7:00 PM. Due by March 13 (Thursday) 5:00 PM or earlier via Canvas/Assignments.
1-page Project Proposal Due March 18 (Tuesaday)
1-page Project Progress
Report Due (optional)
April 8 (Tuesday)
Final Exam April 29 - April 30 (Tuesday-Wednesday)
30-min. per student via Zoom
April 29 (T) 7:00-9:00 PM
April 30 (W) 7:00-9:00 PM

==> Sign-up and schedule your comprehensive oral final exam in advance.

Final Project Report Due
(and Term Paper for CEE 800)
May 2 (Friday) by 5:00 PM or earlier,
via Canvas/Assignments


Class Date     Topics Chapters
1 1/14 T  
Introduction and General Overview, the "Lemma of Reproducibility." Frequently used and important Descriptive statistics on CT and Disp -- Measure of Location (C.T.), Measure of Variability (Disp.), Measure of Symmetry (Skewness) and Measure of Peakedness (Kurtosis) in the "System."

1 and 6, Cookbook
2 1/21 T  
(Joint|Conditional) Probability, and applications of Bayesian Theorem with Probability Tree Diagram technique.

2 and 5, Cookbook
3 1/28 T  
Discrete Random Variables and Probability Distributions - PDF, CDF, Binomial & Poisson, and Spatiotemporal Poisson Modeling techniques and thier limitations.

3, Cookbook
4 2/4 T  
Continuous Random Distributions -- Pervious nature of Normal Dist. and CLT assumption (and Chebychev's Inequality). Normality validation with Shapiro-Wilk & Kolmogorov-Smirnov Theorems. Statistical Inference and Maximum Likelihood Method.

4, Cookbook
5 2/11 T  
PDF/CDF & Interval Estimation -- Issue of Density and Applicability. Concept of inequality Constraints and Penalty functions used in Confidence Interval applications.

4, 7 and 8, Cookbook
6 2/18 T  
Test of Hypothesis -- Method of Deduction, and Clarity in Logic and consequent Decision-making processes
-- all based on p-value. TH is the Alpha and Omega of all statistical methods. What you see is What you get, really? Let's double-check by using p-value, Do and Don't of Hypothesis Testing.

4 and 9, Cookbook
7 2/25 T  
All-mighty Nonparametric Statistics and its Applications, Sign, Kruskal-Wallis and Wilcoxon's Rank Sum models

9 and 10, Cookbook
8 3/4 T  
Introduction to SAS -- how to access SAS via ODU MoVE VM server, and how to get your analysis done

SAS 101
9 3/11 T  
Midterm Exam
Open Book/notes.
Exam material will be posted to Canvas/Assignments on March 11, Tuesday 7:00 PM. Due by March 13 (Thursday) 5:00 PM or earlier via submitting/uploading to Canvas/Assignments

(Spring Break, March 10(M)-15(Sa))

10 3/18 T  
Univariate & Multivariate Regressions, and Trigger/Response dependent linearity in a system. Least Squares Estimation, Significance of Regression, Coeff. of Determination, Mean Squared Error (MSE) and RMSE analysis. Residual SS and variance analysis, Multivariate minimization, R-sq vs. Adjusted R-sq, Stepwise regression and Mallow's Cp statistics, Multicollinearity.

1-page Project Proposal Due

11 and 12, Cookbook
11 3/25 T  
General Linear Model (GLM), Higher-order Nonlinear Polynomials and Stepwise Selection Scheme, Various linearization techniques -- what (really) it is and what you could (incorrectly) do with it, and the significance of p-value in all.

11 and 12, Cookbook
12 4/1 T  
Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), Single-Factor Experiment Design -- what it is and what you can (correctly) do with it, and yet again, the significance of p-value in all.

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) - Dimensionality-reduction method for large data sets with variance-covariance linear combinations. Pre-screening and idetification of key reproducibility variables that are strongly correlated.

13 and 14, Cookbook
13 4/8 T  
Completely Randomized (CR) and Randomized Complete Block (RCB) Designs - RCB as a versatile Swiss Army knife, which actually can cut.

1-page Project Progress Report Due

13 and 14, Cookbook
14 4/15 T  
Latin Square (LSQ) and Factorial Designs, and Multicolinearity -- to find and evaluate intrinsic 'clicks'. Further on Response Surface Methods, Factorial Multicollinearity.

13, 14 and 15, Cookbook
15 4/22 T  
Multiple Means Comparison (MMC) techniques with Duncan's MRT and Turkey's LSD, GLMSelect technique and subsequent Heteroscedasticity of predictive model(s).

13, 14 and 15, Cookbook
 
* 4/29-4/30 T-W  
Final Exam (Comprehensive Oral test)
30-min. per student via Zoom

April 29 (T) 7:00-9:00 PM
April 30 (W) 7:00-9:00 PM

==> Sign-up and schedule your comprehensive oral final exam in advance.

 
* 5/2 F  
Final Project Report Due
(and Term Paper for CEE 800)
submitted/uploaded to Canvas/Assignments by 5:00 PM or earlier

 


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